Well, we’ve made it to another Grand Slam. After a six-week offseason, we get to jump straight into the first Grand Slam of the season in the Australian Open. If you’re a fan of staying up late and getting no sleep, this is the Slam for you.
On the women’s side, Aryna Sabalenka will defend her maiden Slam, while seeing the return of Naomi Osaka, Angelique Kerber, Emma Raducanu, and Amanda Anisimova. Names such as Karolina Muchova, Belinda Bencic, Petra Kvitova and Madison Keys will unfortunately miss the event. On the men’s side, World No. 1 and defending champion Novak Djokovic looks to win an astonishing 11th Australian Open, but he’ll be challenged by the likes of Carlos Alcaraz, Jannik Sinner, and Daniil Medvedev, among others. Unfortunately, Rafael Nadal and Nick Kyrgios will miss the first Grand Slam event of the season, and hopefully we will see both of them back in time for the busy summer that includes the French Open, Wimbledon and Olympics.
This article will guide you through each DFS slate, focusing on which players to build your core around. It also includes match predictions for the remainder of the slate. With that, let’s dive into the plays.
Jannik Sinner ($9,600)
Andrey Rublev has spent 11 hours and 40 minutes on the court through four rounds, while Jannik Sinner has logged just 8 hours and 30 minutes. If I were to say Rublev can beat Sinner, I’d probably need those numbers to be flip-flopped, with Sinner being the one coming off the five-set match that went over four hours. This is just a horrible spot for Rublev. While he has the ball-striking to go toe-to-toe with Sinner (their match in Miami last season was incredible despite being a 6-2, 6-4 contest that lasted just over an hour), he’s just not going to have the stamina, which says something considering Sinner has a long history of physically breaking down in the second week of a Slam. That could still happen, but with the mileage Rublev has logged so far, and how physical this match should be, I just don’t see Rublev ever finding himself in better shape physically during this match. Sinner’s increased usage of variety since the second half of last season gives him a nice edge as well, as he should be able to move Rublev away from the middle of the court and keep the Russian on the run where he’s uncomfortable.
Other match predictions (sets in parentheses)
Djokovic over Fritz (4): Day session in some of the warmest conditions of the tournament is going to keep Fritz hanging around in sets. Djokovic was absolutely peaking during his US Open run when these two last met. I think Djokovic is just a tad bit below that level, though he’s certainly playing his way into a pretty strong form. These two played in Melbourne a couple years ago in some really strange circumstances, as there was a curfew for the crowd during COVID-19. That caused a bit of a delay, as the crowd needed to clear out, and they finished the match in an empty stadium. Additionally, that was the match Djokovic tore his abdomen, which if I recall, Fritz has admitted flustered him quite a bit, as he didn’t know how to take advantage of the injured Djokovic. I think Fritz’s serve can keep him competitive here though, but he’s not winning this matchup, barring another Djokovic injury.
Gauff versus Kostyuk: As long as Gauff’s forehand holds up nicely, I don’t really see why she would lose this match. Kostyuk has done well to get this far, but the best player she’s seen was Elise Mertens, who was coming off a final in Hobart, so she was almost certainly fatigued. Can Gauff crumble under pressure? Absolutely, and to Kostyuk’s credit, this is also the best player Gauff will have seen this tournament, and probably the second best she’s seen all season behind Elina Svitolina in the Auckland final.
Sabalenka versus Krejcikova: Interesting matchup here. The way Sabalenka is playing, it’s fair to say nobody can beat her at this tournament. I think we’ve seen some cracks in her game, but she’s done so well in keeping a level head to ensure those cracks don’t completely erupt into a full-blown collapse. Krejcikova beat Sabalenka around 11 months ago in Dubai. Sabalenka then beat Krejcikova three times in the following six weeks. Krejcikova at the very least has the return game to attack Sabalenka’s serve, notably off second-serve returns. Krejcikova also has variety that can disrupt the rhythm of Sabalenka. She can hit flat off the baseline, but she will loop balls, she will hit drop shots and she will come forward to play the net. This is one of the best doubles players in the world, so none of this is surprising. Sabalenka is uncomfortable at the net, so if Krejcikova can execute her drop shots or move forward to force Sabalenka to pass her, it could get interesting. My biggest fear is Sabalenka should really attack Krejcikova’s serve, and the Czech will really need to improve that area of her game if she wants any chance at providing an upset. I’ll credit Krejcikova for having the better backhand of the two as well, but there’s a far greater difference in forehand quality, favoring Sabalenka. My ultimate expectation here is Krejcikova can take a set and Sabalenka wins in three, but like last year, what happens if Sabalenka drops a set? Does she implode, or does she keep a straight head and march on?
Alcaraz versus Zverev: Alcaraz certainly looks impressive as the tournament has progressed. I have some concerns over Zverev playing not one, but two five-setters during his run preceding this matchup. I think Zverev’s only chance here is if they get placed in the day session. If Zverev can benefit from warmer conditions where his serve can play just a little bigger, he’d be able to generate even a few more extra points per set that might give him a chance. Given Hurkacz/Medvedev is the other matchup in this half though, I think Alcaraz is getting the night-session treatment.
Hurkacz over Medvedev (4): Medvedev admitted following his win over Nuno Borges that he is exhausted. He claimed he was fine against Auger-Aliassime, then felt it a bit the following day in practice, and that he was fine to begin the match against Borges, but by the third set, had trouble maintaining a quality energy level, which resulted in more errors and the eventual dropped third set. A big server like Hurkacz who is comfortable at the net and may invoke a heavy dose of serve-and-volley is going to be a major problem for Medvedev. With as far back as Medvedev stands, if Hurkacz is overly successful using serve-and-volley, Medvedev is going to be running a lot and often, and I’m just not quite sure he is physically capable of handling that type of defending at this stage, given his lack of a lead-in event and the mileage he has already logged at this event.
Zheng versus Kalinskaya: Kalinskaya is playing like a top-50 player at the moment, but if you go off her current ranking of No. 71, she would fit the split of opponents outside the top 50 where Qinwen Zheng is 25-1 since the start of 2023. If you go back and look at Kalinskaya’s history versus top-20 opponents, she’s 9-18, but some of the wins are a bit suspect. Of the nine wins, three were against counter-punchers, two were against injured opponents (Rybakina in Rome and Pliskova in Miami in 2022), with another being via retirement. I do think Kalinskaya has a chance here, especially with Zheng feeling some pressure as the favorite to not only win this quarterfinal, but make the final, given the state of the rest of the top half. Overall, Zheng reuniting with Pere Riba, the coach that brought her into the top 20 before leaving for Coco Gauff last season (and then coaching Gauff to the US Open title alongside Brad Gilbert), it sure feels like the stars are aligning for a potential Zheng/Gauff revenge final.
Noskova over Yastremska (2): It’s hard not to be impressed with Yastremska, and she very well may have the best story in the remaining draw (could argue Kostyuk), but this is a rough spot for her. Yastremska has logged just under 12.5 hours of court time over the last two weeks, and now she gets Noskova who essentially got a walkover in her fourth round against Svitolina, who was forced to retire after just three games due to a back injury. Noskova should also be comfortable with the pace of Yastremska, and I just feel like the Ukrainian is a bit more inconsistent with her ball-striking. If fatigue comes into play, it’s a major edge to Noskova.
