Today’s Best Bets
Sam Choudhury
Bettings
Well, we’ve made it to another Grand Slam. After a six-week offseason, we get to jump straight into the first Grand Slam of the season in the Australian Open.
If you’re a fan of staying up late, and getting no sleep, this is the Slam for you. On the women’s side, Aryna Sabalenka will defend her maiden Slam, while seeing the return of Naomi Osaka, Angelique Kerber, Emma Raducanu and Amanda Anisimova. Names such as Karolina Muchova, Belinda Bencic, Petra Kvitova and Madison Keys will unfortunately miss the event.
On the men’s side, World No. 1 and defending champion Novak Djokovic looks to win an astonishing 11th Australian Open, but he’ll be challenged by the likes of Carlos Alcaraz, Jannik Sinner, and Daniil Medvedev, among others. Unfortunately, Rafael Nadal and Nick Kyrgios will miss the first Grand Slam event of the season, and hopefully we will see both of them back in time for the busy summer that includes the French Open, Wimbledon and Olympics.
So, let’s dive straight into the draw.
Another year, another injury for Novak Djokovic. In 2021, Djokovic dealt with an oblique tear, and still went on to win the Australian Open. In 2023, Djokovic dealt with a partially torn hamstring, and still went on to win the Australian Open. Now, Djokovic heads into the 2024 Australian Open with questions surrounding a wrist injury in which he picked up during the United Cup. Wrist injuries are extremely delicate and tricky to work through, but Djokovic’s camp has remained pretty optimistic regarding his health since arriving in Melbourne, and there have been no signs of that injury even being a problem throughout his practices. Djokovic has won each of his last four trips to Melbourne, and nine of his last 12. While names like Carlos Alcaraz, Jannik Sinner and Daniil Medvedev can be considered threats to Djokovic’s reign, it’s difficult to imagine the Serbian losing to anyone in the extreme conditions Down Under with the style of tennis he imposes. In this specific quarter, there are certainly no true threats, except for a setback on his wrist injury.
If the end of 2023 taught us anything, it’s that it may finally be time to believe in Jannik Sinner, as he was able to pick up a pair of wins over Novak Djokovic, as well as make the Year End Championships Final. The only thing Sinner has left to prove is can he physically hold up for two weeks in the best of five? He finally made a Slam semifinal last year at Wimbledon but lost to Djokovic in straight sets. In fact, it was a pretty underwhelming Slam season for Sinner, as he failed to make it past the Round of 16 in the other three Slams. Sinner has one top-50 win in 12 matches in Melbourne, so there’s still some necessary growth for the Italian. He draws Van De Zandschulp in the opening round, a good test to kick off his tournament, but I fail to see anyone overly threatening until the fourth round, when Sinner is potentially going to face one of Frances Tiafoe, Borna Coric or Karen Khachanov. Section 4 is loaded, with Andrey Rublev as the top seed, followed by Alex De Minaur, Nicolas Jarry and Sebastian Korda, with floaters such as Milos Raonic, Lloyd Harris, and Christopher Eubanks. I want to touch on two of those names, so we’ll start with Sebastian Korda, a quarterfinalist from a season ago, who picked up a wrist injury mid match. While Korda looked a little lethargic in his Adelaide semifinal against Jiri Lehecka, this is a player primed for a big season, and I think he’s going to be a serious threat to Rublev in the third round. His potential fourth-round opponent? Alex De Minaur, who has had a stellar beginning to his 2024 season, beating Alexander Zverev, Taylor Fritz, and Novak Djokovic at the United Cup, as well as Carlos Alcaraz in an exhibition during practice week in Melbourne. De Minaur has added some power to his offense, is one of the best athletes on Tour, and probably a top three counterpuncher. Now sporting a career high No. 10 ranking following the United Cup, De Minaur is a name to keep an eye on, as he can out fitness just about anyone in this field and finds himself with a draw in which he can avoid Sinner until the back-end of the tournament.
This is probably the deepest quarter in the men’s draw, as each of the top four seeds could realistically win this quarter, while there are a pair of really interesting floaters, as well as a couple others who can make some noise in the early rounds. We’ll start with the floaters who may make some early round noise in Denis Shapovalov, David Goffin, and Thanasi Kokkinakis. In Shapovalov and Goffin’s cases, the two had some injury-plagued 2023 seasons, but they are both former top-20 players. Goffin got through qualifying and drew Ugo Humbert in the opening round, while Shapovalov, who was a one-and-done in his return in Auckland, gets Jakub Mensik. If either player advances past the first round, they both have potential to play their way into form, with Shapovalov more so being capable of giving some higher seeded players some trouble. In Kokkinakis’ case, he’s a fan favorite with a massive serve, and is built for big events like this. He’ll potentially see Grigor Dimitrov in the second round. The two floaters who have a real chance to go deep are Arthur Fils and Roman Safiullin, both of whom are in Section 5 in Holger Rune’s mini section and could meet in the second round. If those two do meet, I can see the winner knocking out Rune, who as we know has a long history of struggling in extreme heat. With the way Dimitrov is playing since last fall, I would not be entirely surprised to see him make this quarterfinal, even if it means needing to take out Daniil Medvedev in the fourth round. Medvedev opted against playing a lead-in event, the first time he’s done so in his career. The guy I love in this quarter is Hubert Hurkacz, who is currently +10000 (DraftKings) to win this tournament and +1100 (BetRivers) to win the quarter. His draw isn’t overly taxing, projected to see Omar Jasika, Shapovalov/Mensik, Hubert/Goffin/Zhizhen Zhang and whoever comes out of that Rune/Fils/Safiullin/Griekspoor mini section, before a potential quarterfinal. Hurkacz loves the conditions in Australia, as well as the Australian Open Dunlop balls.
We end with the most interesting quarter of the men’s draw, led by Carlos Alcaraz. Like Medvedev, Alcaraz opted against playing a lead-in event prior to the Australian Open, which for me, is a strange decision considering Alcaraz dealt with a couple fairly serious injuries in the latter half of 2023, but more importantly, missed the Australian Summer last season. Sure, you could argue Alcaraz being a bit cautious makes sense, but for someone who has a history of cramping and hasn’t played an actual match in Australia since 2022, I’d have liked to see him get a couple matches in a tournament setting. Alcaraz did play a charity exhibition match against De Minaur, which he lost, and in watching some of that match, there was noticeable rust in his forehand. Lastly, and perhaps the most important element for Alcaraz, is his coach Juan Carlos Ferrero will be absent as he recovers from knee surgery. Something I don’t think many people realize is just how important he is to Alcaraz. Yes, Alcaraz has a couple other coaches, but Juan Carlos Ferrero is the rock to his team. He’s basically a father figure to Alcaraz, and I’m very curious how Alcaraz handles adversity without having him on site. Alcaraz is lined up to potentially see Tommy Paul or Jack Draper in the fourth round, as well as any of Zverev, Ruud or Norrie in a potential quarterfinal. I would be very surprised to see Alcaraz make the semifinals at this event. If not Alcaraz, then who? Tommy Paul is certainly capable of beating Alcaraz, but Jack Draper may be the American’s kryptonite, and they’re lined up for an Adelaide rematch in the second round. If Tommy Paul is knocked out, Alcaraz will make the quarterfinal, because Draper does not have the fitness to hold up against the Spaniard. That has me looking for the potential winner out of this quarter in Section 7. Casper Ruud? Perhaps he has improved on quicker hardcourts, but is he beating Alexander Zverev in these conditions? I’m not ready to believe in Ruud to that nature. What I can tell you is I’ve never been a bigger believer in Alexander Zverev than I am in 2024. Zverev is coming off a 2023 season which started off unsurprisingly slow as he worked his way back from the shattered ankle. He ended up finishing 39-13 (after starting 12-13), which over the course of a season would’ve been his third best winning percentage all time. He additionally posted the lowest double fault rate of his career (3.7%), with the second highest first serve percentage (70.5%) of his career. That’s an outstanding turnaround for someone who suffered from a horrific case of the yips in 2020. With a normal offseason, I think Zverev regains the form he provided immediately prior to the ankle injury and re-establishes himself as a top-three player on Tour. Carrying a +2800 (FanDuel) number to win this tournament, Zverev is one of the few guys on Tour with the weapons and level to outclass Novak Djokovic.
Total Units In Play: 4.30u
Max Winnings: 22u
We’ve reached the point where it’s fair to question who can beat Iga Swiatek. Fortunately, we know the answer, but it’s a very select group. To beat Iga, you need to be an aggressive ball bashing style player, who hits a flat ball, is willing to take the ball early, and is able to move Iga off the baseline. If you can hit through and rush Iga, you can be successful against her. We’ve seen the likes of Elena Rybakina, Jelena Ostapenko, Jessica Pegula, and Barbora Krejcikova have pretty consistent success in this matchup. Just one of those players pop up in this quarter and that is Jelena Ostapenko, who could potentially meet with Iga in the fourth round. Ostapenko, as of this writing, will be playing in the Adelaide final with wins over Cirstea, Garcia, Kostyuk, and Alexandrova, and she is looking to be in one of those rhythms in which she is dangerous against anyone. Ostapenko has a projected path of Kimberly Birrell, Martic/Tomljanovic, Azarenka and Vondrousova/Navarro before that potential fourth round matchup with Iga. Azarenka looks to be the toughest out, as she did beat Ostapenko in Brisbane. At +4700 (FanDuel), I will take a long look at Ostapenko in extremely favorable conditions and a really favorable draw despite the best player in the world being in her way.
So, let me begin by saying right now, as long as she stays healthy, I think Elena Rybakina is the favorite to win this tournament. Unfortunately, her number is unplayable at its current price. With the way she ran through the Brisbane field, it’s just unfathomable to think there’s a better player than Rybakina right now. Now, there are a few interesting names in this quarter, one of which is not Jessica Pegula, who has not just looked pretty awful to begin 2024 but withdrew from her Adelaide semifinal match due to an illness. Nobody played more matches in 2023 than Jessica Pegula, between her singles, doubles and mixed doubles schedules, and she admitted in the offseason that she was really tired and worn down. After a similarly busy schedule in 2022, I have to question whether Pegula’s body is simply breaking down on her. Let’s not forget, Pegula is nearing Age 30, which may be young to most, but on the WTA Tour, that’s a bit of a scary age. So, if I’m expecting a deep run from Rybakina, that eliminates the likes of Daria Kasatkina, Sloane Stephens, Anhelina Kalinina and Jasmine Paolini in Section 3 (yes, those are the best names in Rybakina’s section). That leaves those in Section 4, aside from Pegula, which includes Qinwen Zheng, Emma Raducanu, Katie Boulter, Lin Zhu and Sorana Cirstea. Of that group, Zheng would be favored against everyone, and this was the player I highlighted in my 2024 preview as the season’s top breakout star. Zheng made the WTA Elite Trophy finals (the secondary year end event to the WTA Finals), along with making her first Slam quarterfinal at the US Open. This is a player who qualifies as a ball basher so the conditions should be extremely favorable to her. While Iga beat the brakes off Zheng at the United Cup, I thought she gradually improved her level throughout the match. That’s not to say she’ll suddenly beat her, but keep in mind, we could see Iga run into Ostapenko in that quarter. Zheng can avoid Rybakina until the second week, and if there’s ever a time you want to see Rybakina, it’s when she has logged mileage. At +4000 (FanDuel) to win the tournament and +700 (ESPN) to win the quarter, I’ll be buying Qinwen Zheng to begin 2024.
This is probably the most open quarter of the draw, and why wouldn’t it be? While Coco Gauff has now won a Grand Slam title and has earned more respect at the top of the women’s game, there’s still a substantial gap between the Big Three (Iga, Rybakina, Sabalenka) and Gauff. Gauff’s forehand continues to be a major liability. While it has improved, it’s just still terribly inconsistent. With Maria Sakkari as the second highest seed, and Caroline Garcia coming off a disappointing 2023 season, while drawing Naomi Osaka in the opening round, this quarter is anyone’s to win. I look at some of these first-round matches and the three that stand out to me are Garcia/Osaka, Fernandez/Bejlek and Linette/Wozniacki. The latter being a matchup of a former champion and last year’s semifinalist. With the form Wozniacki showed at the US Open a season ago, it’s fair to question whether she can make a deep run at an event she’s previously won. She is in Haddad Maia’s mini section, and should those two meet, they may break the record for longest WTA Grand Slam match. I can’t imagine the winner has enough left in the tank to go two weeks. In Fernandez/Bejlek, I love the talent Bejlek has. I just think she’s better suited for clay at this stage. I would expect Fernandez to advance, and a potential third round clash with Coco Gauff would be interesting, though the American is 13-3 versus lefties, winning each of her last 10. With how durable her backhand is, any lefty is going to have a hard time beating Gauff. That leaves Garcia/Osaka, and if you’ve seen our early first round plays, I love Osaka in that matchup. Garcia, who did win a set off Iga at the United Cup, then saw her forehand and serve break down tremendously. Both those weapons were incredibly inconsistent throughout 2023, reminiscent of her poor 2020 through 2022 seasons. I thought Osaka played brilliantly in Brisbane, despite only making it two rounds deep. While there was some rust, notably with her footwork, her serve and forehand looked every bit as good as when she won her four Grand Slams. Karolina Pliskova played one of her best matches in years to take Osaka out. If Osaka maintains (and builds) upon her level from Brisbane, not only should she take out Garcia, but with Daria Saville, Yulia Putintseva, Ana Potapova, and Kaja Juvan in her mini section, stands very realistic chance to meet Gauff in the fourth round. By week two, I’d expect Osaka (+4000, DraftKings) to be as close to her best level as possible and would become a serious threat to win this tournament.
Lastly, we have the defending champions quarter, and frankly, I don’t think Sabalenka could have an easier draw. Prior to getting smacked around by Elena Rybakina in the Brisbane final, Sabalenka looked every bit as unbeatable as she did Down Under in 2023, dropping just 15 games in her first four matches. Sabalenka’s path to a quarterfinal includes Ella Seidel, Brenda Fruhvirtova, Tsurenko/Masarova/Sasnovich and Samsonova/Vekic/Pavlyuchenkova/Badosa. I think Sabalenka reaches the quarterfinals in her sleep. The question is, can any of Ons Jabeur, Mirra Andreeva, Ekaterina Alexandrova or Barbora Krejcikova stop the Belarusian? Jabeur and Andreeva will likely meet in the second round, and I expect Andreeva to knock Jabeur out, as Jabeur supposedly spent the offseason rehabbing some injuries. As far as Alexandrova and Krejcikova goes, Alexandrova is far too errant, but she does have the ball striking to at least rush Sabalenka a bit. Krejcikova has looked far too inconsistent for me to believe she can make a run. Then there’s Mirra Andreeva. The 16-year-old sensation is probably better suited for clay courts at this stage, but she looked excellent in Brisbane. I think Sabalenka’s power would be too overwhelming for someone who just isn’t fully developed, but we’ve seen stranger things happen. Andreeva did take a set off Rybakina in Beijing late last season, and she neutralized every bit of power Samsonova has in that Brisbane run. I think Andreeva is extremely overvalued on a match-to-match basis, but +5000 (FanDuel) to win this tournament? I am at least willing to take a flier at that number, as I don’t think oddsmakers are showing enough respect in the outright market.
Total Units In Play: 4.8u
Max Winnings: 42.85u
