Today’s Best Bets
Sam Choudhury
Bettings
(Follow along with our whole NCAA Tournament coverage!)
The Sweet 16 is set. Here at FTN, our incredible team of college basketball experts have continued to take you through each bracket, talking favorites, sleepers and upsets. Make sure you check out our March Madness Betting Guide that includes all our incredible content for the 2024 NCAA Tournament that will continuously be updated throughout March Madness.
This article will take a deep dive into our FTN NCAA Tournament Power Rankings, created by our own Frank Brank. Our power rankings will be updated throughout the tournament with the remaining March Madness field. These power rankings are based on 10,000 FTN Simulations. Expected win percentage is the likelihood a team would win a game against an average opponent based on our simulations. It does not account for the team’s expected opponents in the tournament. This will give you an objective measure of the strength of any individual team.
Let’s take a deep dive into our power rankings and see what we can learn about the Sweet 16 teams remaining that are looking for a National Championship.
(All odds from DraftKings Sportsbook.)
The “Region of Death” became a lot easier when No. 4 Auburn was upset by No. 13 Yale. The Tigers presented a unique combination of a post presence (Johni Broome) and perimeter defense (13th in 3P defense). While Thursday’s National Championship rematch with San Diego State provides some intrigue, the Aztecs would need to replicate their 48.1% shooting from against Yale to even have a chance against this Huskies juggernaut. Our power rankings make UConn the heavy favorite, with a tournament win percentage of 19.9%. That equates to a betting value of +403, well above UConn’s +210 value on DraftKings. If the Huskies stumble, it would likely be against Iowa State in the Elite Eight.
The Cougars are right behind Connecticut in our power rankings with a 19% tournament win percentage, which translates to +426 betting odds. The Cougars are actually a value at +500, especially after the public ticket will certainly be swayed by Houston’s narrow overtime escape against Texas A&M. Their South bracket provides a difficult path with both No. 4 Duke and No. 2 Marquette projected to block their road to the Final Four. However, the Houston defense is impossible to replicate in practice, making the Cougars a very interesting investment at this inflated number.
I backed the Volunteers to win the National Championship in early February, and I feel very confident in that wager. Tennessee survived a scare from No. 7 Texas in the Round of 32, overcoming a dreadful 3-of-25 (12%) shooting night from 3P range. Dalton Knecht (39.1% 3P) and Zakai Zeigher (35% 3P) combined to shoot a mind-blowing 2-of-16 (12.5%) from beyond the arc. That is unlikely to happen again, and the Volunteers third-most efficient defense is still a matchup nightmare. The Midwest gives two difficult challenges in No. 3 Creighton and a massive Elite Eight potential matchup with No. 1 Purdue, but Tennessee’s +1300 value is still a nice value when compared to the 7.6% tournament win percentage in our power rankings.
Our FTN models correctly identified Iowa State as a fantastic National Championship value at +2300, yet that number has barely moved (now +2000) even with Iowa State just two games away from the Final Four. Our power rankings give the Cyclones a 7.4% chance of cutting down the nets in Arizona, equating to +1251 betting market value. There is a major obstacle in the Cyclones path (UConn), but if Iowa State gets past the Huskies this number will plummet. Iowa State’s defense has dominated the big moments of the season, illustrated by two victories over Houston. The Cyclones have challenges on offense, but when they are hot from 3P range, they can defeat any remaining team including Connecticut. There is a huge gap in our projections and the market value, making Iowa State the best value on the board per our model.
