Today’s Best Bets
Sam Choudhury
Fantasy football rankings can be assembled in a variety of manners. Whether relying on projections, factoring in injury risk to the equation, or playing the ADP, you can approach them in many ways. After sorting through each team situation, my PPR rankings are now live at FTN Fantasy. When comparing my ranks versus the expert consensus ranks (ECR) across the fantasy industry, I found a handful of players I was both higher and lower on. Let’s discuss the standout players from both lists today.
Check out my full PPR and Rookie Rankings here.
Fantasy Football Rankings – Higher than consensus
Najee Harris, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers
(My Ranking: RB8 vs. ECR: RB15)
Is the Steelers’ offensive line a concern? Yes. Is it a big enough worry to trump the Year 1 volume Najee Harris is in line for? No way. The Steelers ranked 32nd in adjusted line yards last season, but they were 17th in open field yards. Harris has the nimble feet and agility to get into the second level with regularity. Harris will be a regular check-down option for Ben Roethlisberger, with rumors already surfacing that the team has plans to line him up all over the field. As recently as 2019, the Steelers ranked 12th (22.8%) in target share to the running back position. Last year, Pittsburgh ranked 32nd (12.8%) in targeting their running backs. Those targets are coming back with Harris in town.
Keenan Allen, WR, Los Angeles Chargers
(My Ranking: WR5 vs. ECR: WR10)
Last year with Justin Herbert under center, Keenan Allen was a target munching monster. In Weeks 2-14, Allen was healthy and on a torrid pace as the WR3 (19.6) in fantasy points per game. In that stretch, Allen ranked fifth in target share (28%) among all wide receivers. Only Davante Adams, Stefon Diggs, Michael Thomas and DeAndre Hopkins garnered higher target shares over that 12 game span. Allen will be ranked as a WR1 by many sites, but the disparity is that he is a top-five fantasy receiver with the chance to revisit top-three production.
Cooper Kupp, WR, Los Angeles Rams
(My Ranking: WR14 vs. ECR: WR21)
The quarterback and pace upgrade Cooper Kupp is about to enjoy will be marvelous. The Rams will be a top-five pace team if Matthew Stafford starts all 17 games. Kupp will be the main beneficiary of this as the team’s main squeeze in the red zone. The talent and opportunity remain for Kupp to revisit top-flight status with an outside shot at a top-12 finish. Last season, Kupp ranked third among all receivers in yards after the catch (507) and first in missed tackles forced (21).
Anthony Firkser, TE, Tennessee Titans
(My Ranking: TE6 vs. ECR: TE26)
If you missed my Anthony Firkser love letter, here it is. Enjoy. The Titans are a team that highly utilizes the tight end position, and Firkser’s only competition for targets behind A.J. Brown is the replacement level talent of Josh Reynolds. Firkser has a legit shot at 90+ targets this season. He will finish comfortably inside the top 6-10 tight ends if he hits that mark with his red-zone involvement.
Fantasy Football Rankings – Lower than consensus
D'Andre Swift, RB, Detroit Lions
(My Ranking: RB24 vs. ECR: RB18)
D'Andre Swift has a litany of concerns that will push him to the depths of RB2 status in my ranks. The Lions’ coaching staff prioritized bringing in Jamaal Williams this offseason to help shoulder the rushing load. With the news that Todd Gurley is even a possibility, we continue to get signals from this team that they don’t want Swift handling a true three-down workload. This team will be one of the worst in the league outside of those worries, so expect scoring chances to be capped. If Anthony Lynn has his way, the offense will be slow, which will hinder Swift’s committee volume. The Chargers ranked 11th in total pace last year, but before that, Lynn hadn’t overseen an offense that had finished higher than 15th (16th, 15th, 32nd, 27th) in total pace.
Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings
(My Ranking: WR13 vs. ECR: WR7)
Justin Jefferson was a superstar from the time that he set foot on an NFL field. My lower ranking for Jefferson versus consensus is that I like other receivers' situations in his range more, along with concerns with the Vikings' passing rate. Last season, the Vikings were the fourth most run-heavy team in the NFL (50%) in neutral game scripts. In the volume department, what helped Jefferson was that Minnesota ran the 13th most plays in negative game scripts. The Vikings' passing rate jumped from 50% to 66% when trailing. The Vikings are getting a huge infusion of talent back on the defensive side of the ball, which could limit the passing rate even more.
JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
(My Ranking: WR39 vs. ECR: WR26)
The addition of Najee Harris, along with JuJu Smith-Schuster’s declining efficiency, has me pushing him down in rankings. Last year, 39.6% of Smith-Schuster’s targets were in the short middle of the field, which will be Harris’ operating zone. Smith-Schuster ranked 82nd in yards per route run (1.32) and 103rd in target separation last season. Toss in reports that state the Steelers could move him outside more, and anyway you slice it, this reads bad news for Smith-Schuster. If he sees more man coverage, kiss his counting stats goodbye. Last season among 94 receivers with 15 or more man coverage targets, he ranked 80th in yards per route run against man coverage.
Noah Fant, TE, Denver Broncos
(My Ranking: TE15 vs. ECR: TE8)
Noah Fant’s 2021 outlook isn’t as rosy as last season’s. Courtland Sutton’s return will dent the 18% target share that Fant saw in 2020 alongside Tim Patrick, Jerry Jeudy and K.J. Hamler. Denver has been making moves all offseason that scream they want to take the air out of the ball and rather run the ball and chew up the clock. They reloaded on defense while also bringing the pop gun arm of Teddy Bridgewater. Surrounded by a stocked group of skill players in Carolina, Bridgewater could only muster a 3.0% passing touchdown rate. If volume and touchdowns are the lifeblood of fantasy tight end production, Fant’s hopes could be on life support. He’s nothing more than a TE2 in my ranks.
