Mojo Liquid Props: Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs

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A week ago in this space, my recommendation for a Mojo Liquid Prop for the Super Bowl was wagering on the over on total postseason touchdown passes for Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes. Part of the rationale for that pick, of course, was that Mahomes is the best quarterback in the NFL, and him throwing for multiple touchdown passes in a game feels like a fairly safe pick any time.

But also, as we all know, Mahomes isn’t healthy.

Mojo’s full list of Liquid Props is out now for the Super Bowl. For those who missed last week’s piece, Liquid Props are a new way to play on Mojo that allows you to invest in a player’s stat line for a given game (or postseason). The stock price doubles as the over/under, and if you pick the under, you get your winnings if the player hits the under. If the player hits the over, you can get rewarded for every number a player goes over his line. For example, if a player has a line of 2 touchdowns and scores 3, you win. If he scores 4, you win double. And so on. Maybe you don’t want to invest in a player’s long-term stock, but an individual game is a different matter.

That’s what we’re looking at today. Patrick Mahomes, in the Super Bowl, and his rushing yards. More specifically, the under.

Mojo Spotlight: Patrick Mahomes

Mojo carries a whole list of Liquid Props for the Super Bowl. And as it happens, I also have my own Super Bowl projections available on FTN Fantasy. Compare one to the other, see where the biggest gaps lie, and go from there. For the most part, those gaps lie in touchdowns, which are all tiny numbers to begin with, so any variation is a big percentage. For yardage, the biggest gap is on the total yardage for Eagles WR Zach Pascal, whose Liquid Prop line is $5.89 but who I have projected for 8.5 total yards. There’s an argument for that prop, because the smaller the line, the easier the player can go over the line, and the more you can get rewarded. But of course, Pascal hasn’t had even a single yard since Week 16, and he’s only had any yardage at all 10 times all season. It might work, but it also might be a complete waste.

After Pascal’s line, though, the clear biggest gap between Liquid Props and my projections is on Mahomes’ rushing yards, with a Liquid Prop line of $19.90 compared to my projection of 14.7.

Mahomes Rushing Yards

Mahomes has rushed for 8 yards in each of the Chiefs’ postseason games. That is of course at least in part because of the ankle injury he suffered in the Divisional Round game against the Jaguars, which held his rushing in check in both Chiefs postseason games. Will Mahomes be healthy enough to run in the Super Bowl? With two more weeks to heal up, it’s possible, but high-ankle sprains often take more than a simple three weeks (with a game played in that time) to heal up, so expecting a fully healthy Mahomes for the Super Bowl might be too much to ask. 

But even without that, Mahomes going for nearly 20 rushing yards is a big ask. Mahomes has played eight games since the start of December and has only topped this line (only reached double-digit rushing yards, in fact) twice in that time, with games of 9, -3, 33, 8, 8, 29, 8 and 8 yards. 

Summary

In the Super Bowl, teams want to lean on their strengths, and the Chiefs thrive when Patrick Mahomes is throwing the ball. His ankle probably won’t be back to full strength, and even if it is, the team will want to be throwing the ball. Taking an under isn’t the sexy pick to make, and it does limit your potential profit (with Liquid Props, the most you can make back on an under is the amount you invest), but profit is profit, and it seems very unlikely Patrick Mahomes reaches or exceeds 19.9 rushing yards in this year’s Super Bowl.